Decomposition Analysis of Wheat Production Growth across Agro-Climatic Zones of Chhattisgarh, India
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52783/rev-alap.173Keywords:
Decomposition Analysis, Wheat Production, Agro-Climatic Zones, Minhas Model, Yield Effect, Area Effect, Chhattisgarh Agriculture, Foodgrain Growth.Abstract
This study examines the structural components driving wheat production growth across the three distinct agro-climatic zones of Chhattisgarh, India—the Chhattisgarh Plains, Northern Hills, and Bastar Plateau—for the 16-year period spanning 2002–03 to 2017–18. Secondary time-series data on the area, production, and yield of wheat were analyzed using the additive decomposition model formulated by Dr. B. S. Minhas (1964) to quantify the relative contributions of the Area Effect (AE), Yield Effect (YE), and Interaction Effect (IE) toward overall output changes.
The empirical findings reveal significant zonal heterogeneity in the drivers of wheat production growth:
· At the aggregate state level, wheat production growth in Chhattisgarh was overwhelmingly yield-led (YE = 88.93%), with minor contributions from area expansion (AE = 7.83%) and their interaction (IE = 3.23%).
· Zone-wise analysis indicates that yield improvements dominated growth in the Chhattisgarh Plains (YE = 76.07%, AE = 20.04%) and the Northern Hills (YE = 158.11%, AE = -50.26%). In the Northern Hills, strong productivity gains successfully compensated for a marked contraction in wheat acreage.
· In contrast, wheat output growth in the Bastar Plateau was overwhelmingly driven by horizontal land expansion (AE = 128.07%), accompanied by a negative yield performance (YE = -42.29%), highlighting a persistent productivity deficit in the southern region.
The study concludes that while Chhattisgarh has achieved technology- and productivity-driven wheat growth overall, zone-specific policy interventions are required. Efforts in the Bastar Plateau must prioritize bridging the yield gap through enhanced irrigation and high-yielding variety (HYV) seed distribution, whereas strategies in the Northern Hills should focus on stabilizing cultivated acreage through natural resource management.
