Growth Dynamics and Trend Analysis of Wheat in Different Agro-Climatic Zones of Chhattisgarh

Abstract

This study evaluates the temporal growth dynamics and variability in the area, production, and productivity of wheat across three distinct agro-climatic zones of Chhattisgarh (Chhattisgarh Plains, Northern Hills, and Bastar Plateau) as well as for the state as a whole. Secondary time-series data covering a 16-year period from 2002–03 to 2017–18 were analyzed using triennium averages, absolute and relative changes, coefficient of variation (CV), and linear and compound annual growth rates (CGR). The findings reveal that at the state level, wheat production expanded at a significant compound growth rate of 3.83% per annum ($p < 0.01$), predominantly driven by productivity growth of 3.30% ($p < 0.01$) and a modest area expansion of 0.52% ($p < 0.10$). Across agro-climatic zones, the Chhattisgarh Plains registered the highest growth performance, with production and productivity increasing at compound annual rates of 4.45% and 3.61%, respectively. In the Northern Hills, despite a slight decline in wheat area (-0.15% CGR), production maintained a positive growth rate of 2.71% due to substantial yield improvements (2.86% CGR). Conversely, the Bastar Plateau exhibited significant contractions in both cultivated area (-6.84% CGR) and total production (-4.95% CGR), indicating a shift away from wheat in the southern zone despite a 2.04% yield gain. Overall, relative change analysis confirms that state-level production gains were largely yield-driven (41.53% productivity increase) rather than area-driven (3.65% area increase). The study highlights the necessity of region-specific policy interventions, focusing on bridging yield gaps, enhancing Rabi irrigation infrastructure, and supplying high-yielding, climate-resilient seed varieties to sustain wheat production in lagging zones.